Professor Allan Lichtman is a Professor in American University. He has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1984, says that the coronovirus outbreak could be the final straw that ends Donald Trump’s presidency comes the November election.
Professor Lichtman uses a prediction system known as the ” keys to the white house” model and operates under the assumption that presidential election results are impacted primarily by the performance of the party holding office in the run to the vote.
According to the theory, Americans choose their President based upon how well the sitting president has responded to and shaped consequential events of their term. Everything else like media advertising, debates, news coverage and television appearances is disregarded by the electorate on election day as they evaluate the president.
Mr Lichtman said that there are several troubling signs for President Trump, including election losses for his party during the 2018 midterm elections, a lack of major foreign policy successes, ongoing scandal and fact that Mr Trump is not a broadly appealing candidate ( while the President enjoys strong support among Republicans, his approval is relatively low among the rest of the electorate).
The coronavirus outbreak has rattled US markets in recent days, as the threat has disrupt global supply chains and seared investors. In the US officials with the center for Disease Control and Prevention have said that an outbreak in the country is inevitable at this point ” we expect we will see community spread in this country”. Said Dr Nancy Messonier, director of the CDC’s National center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. ” Its not so much a question of this will happen anymore, but rather how many people in this country will have severe illness”,
As the US election draws close let’s see if his prediction will be correct this time.